Forecast indicates slow growth as supply chain catches up

In second-quarter 2022, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined at a –0.6% rate after falling 1.6% in the first quarter. Expectations remain positive for second-half 2022 for a number of reasons — one of which is that first-half GDP decline is associated with some unusual economic circumstances. In the first quarter, an abnormally high valuation of imports, caused by supply chain disruptions, outweighed gains in other GDP components. In the second quarter, a large decline in inventory investment, due to supply and demand imbalances, outweighed gains.

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